I’ll begin with the same paragraph as with Part 1. The latest weak-kneed, gutless international activity at the U.N. and elsewhere that led to the “cease-fire” between Israel and Hezbollah-Lebanon was a mistake. The problems are not going to go away. Hezbollah is not going to go away. Israel is not going to go away. All that has been accomplished is that the U.N. and other sob-sisters have given Iran the opportunity to re-supply their Hezbollah troop numbers, arms, ammo, and rocket depots. We now have a “cease-fire” which both sides are already saying that they will not obey, and that they do not agree to the provisions. Hebollah says it will retain its weapons and apparently plans to continue attacks upon Israel. Lebanon, in the middle, is powerless to change anything. Israel is planning to delay withdrawal from Lebanon as the U.N. is delaying getting its act together. The U.N., as usual, is talking with one side of its mouth, and is unable to get the other side to say the same words at the same time. At the moment, Egypt and Saudia Arabia and the other Gulf States can keep themselves sidelined. This will give them time to further consolidate and strengthen their hold and control over their populations. At least that part of their populations most likely to create problems. Authoritarian governments are always supremely aware of the possibilities of revolt, assassinations, revolution and their loss of power. Iran, and Hezbollah, is a problem for all of these countries. The problem is more acute because the moderating influence in Iraq of Saddam Hussein is gone. Saddam was no one’s idea of a favorite uncle, but he was able to remain in power in Iraq for a very long time against very long odds, while at the same time keeping the lid on that pressure cooker. From the results since his removal, it has to be said that he knew something that apparently was missed by the “Didn’t-Know-It-Alls” in the Bush Administration that pushed us into an unnecessary war. Even more of a problem for the U.S. is the disaster that democracy has recently generated in the Middle East. The Palestinian Authority’s democratic election placed the terrorist Islamic fascists of Hamas in power. The democracy in Lebanon has crawled into bed with the terrorist fanatics of Hezbollah. The democracy in Iraq is devolving daily into all out civil war. How could anyone ever expect a culture that has never had any historical connection with democracy to have the inherent forgiveness and flexibility necessary for democracy to succeed in Iraq? Our tiny military presence there is an almost invisible group against the backdrop of 23 million Iraqis. It is a very small group of fleas on a very large shaggy dog. The rivalries and hatreds of at least a century have flashed over into a bubbling sea of revenge killing and score settling. When the dog scratches at the irritation, sometimes a claw crushes one of the fleas. Even our good friend in the region, Israel, is a democracy with its own problems of a fractured political landscape, and being constantly surrounded by elemental foes that force stresses upon the country that make governance difficult. Especially with “friends” constantly second guessing and Monday quarterbacking everything you try to do, while also forgetting that you have to live in the neighborhood with these foes while the quarterback does not. Saddam is out of the picture, creating a power vacuum, Iran is feeling its oats, and decides to test the waters. Besides it needs a distraction to get the world’s attention off its building nuclear program. Hezbollah gets its marching orders. An incident is created. War breaks out. The worst of all worlds results, as Israel is either unprepared for the buzz saw that Iran has been preparing for it to find in southern Lebanon, or Israel listens to bad counsel and does not go all out to destroy Hezbollah. Air power is not enough when your enemy is deeply embedded in the civilian population and dug in for the long haul. We should have learned something from Vietnam. The worst of all worlds? Iran feels that it has won this latest struggle as its standin is still alive and reasonably well positioned after a month of heavy air strikes, artillery barrages, and an armored mechanized invasion. Iran has the resources: oil (money), is approaching some level of nuclear capability, and is infused with an irrational religious zealotry which was fueled by the long term policy incompetency of the U.S. State Department. The smiles to be seen on the faces of the leaders of Iran and Syria are exactly the same smiles seen on someone who knows that he has a huge advantage, has made a big score, is in a game winning situation. The smiles are those of the hunter about to plunge a spear into the side of a deer. The larger disaster? Someone, somewhere deep in the bowels of the Pentagon, with a wide paranoia stripe is going to be counseling our omnipotent leader, who by the way also listens to God’s voice, to a new targeting scenario for our missiles that will “take out” Iran as a problem in the Middle Eastern game of power politics. We already have the policy of unilateral action. We already have an example of acting solely in our own national interests. Between Tehran and Pyongyang, the latter yet another targeting possibility, the last dregs of U.S. credibility are washing away in the world court of public opinion. We already know that appeasement does not work. Threats do not work. Limited applications of military power has not worked. The remaining available options have become severely limited. All we have to do is do what the Bush Administration has proved itself singularly incapable and inept at doing: talk to Russia and China and coming to a mutual agreement about what to do, if anything, about Iran and North Korea. To do less will further erode what little remains of international respect for the U.S., and replaced it only with fear. The fear would come with a U.S. unilateral strategic surgical nuclear strike at both Iran and North Korea. Such an event would use only a tiny fraction of the U.S. inventory of such weapons. If Russia and China agree to sideline themselves in the event, the action would work. It would also change the world. It would change history for ever. It would also change how Americans see ourselves as a people and as a nation. At that moment, the U.S. will have become the “Greater Satan.” I do not want that to be our destiny. I do not desire it. I fear, however, that it may become necessary for the U.S. to don the cloak and crown of international despotism simply to protect ourselves from the rising tide of Islamic fascism. This larger event would only lead to another still larger sequence. The game, after such tumultuous events, shifts to a higher level with higher value markers. Other participants, other players, with high value markers of their own, with strong abilities and potentialities will gather around and seek their seats at the game board. China, Russia, India, and someday Brazil will all want their turns at rolling the dice and moving the pieces while mutually seeking the prize of national and global supremacy.
(c) Copyright 2006: George Wallace recently published a book on religion which lashes out at nearly all of the comfortable ideas about God, the trappings of organized religion, and the priesthood. His pithy comments and suggestions for a return to a God-centered personal religion will interest everyone. This article may be freely reprinted so long as all copyright attributions, and the full content of this resource box are included. www.OhGodIsThatYou.com
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